In the Latest Aviation News…

China’s Tianjin Airport has reported exponential growth in its corporate aviation business, which increased by 30 percent between 2010 and 2011. In recent years, the city has seen rapid economic development, which has led to the rise of business aviation movements and related enterprises. The number of private aviation movements at the airport has risen by 131 percent since 2008, from 10 to 15 per month to around 35 per month in 2010.

In 2011, Tianjin handled 453 business jet takeoffs and landings, representing an almost 30-percent increase compared with 2010. In the past two years, there has also been a significant increase in the number of corporate aircraft flying international routes, 70 percent of which flew to destinations in Asia.

Several private aviation charter and management companies have now made Tianjin their home, and many of the new private aircraft that have entered China are now based there.

Source: AINonline.com

In the latest aviation news…

Pre-owned business jet and turboprop inventories continued to subside in February, according to data released today by market information firm JetNet. Inventory of used business jets fell to 13.9 percent in February, down 0.4 percentage points from the year-ago period. Business jet sales transactions rose 7.7 percent year-over-year, while at the same time asking prices rose 3 percent. Average days on the market for a business jet dropped to 346 days, down 82 days from February last year.

Meanwhile, turboprop inventory further deflated to 9.4 percent—1.1 percentage points less than it was a year ago. Since the inventory continues to be less than 10 percent, JetNet reiterated that it is a seller’s market for used turboprops. However, turboprop sales transactions slipped by 8.7 percent from February 2011 as asking prices climbed by 19.1 percent. Days on the market for used turboprops rose by 63 days to 313.

JetNet noted that inventory of pre-owned turbine helicopters also decreased in February to 6.4 percent, down 0.6 points from a year ago. Average asking prices for turbine helicopters rose by 38.7 percent year-over-year, it added.

Source: http://www.ainonline.com/node/103337

from Business Aviation Insider

Aviation in China is booming, and demand for new pilots may soon exceed supply, according to a 2011 report from the General Administration of Civil Aviation of China (CAAC). The government organization’s five-year plan predicts a doubling of the civil aviation fleet, which means a surge in demand for new pilots: At least 16,000 will be needed by 2015. With an average of 2,000 pilots graduating annually from China’s seven pilot-training institutes, meeting that number may prove challenging.

The good news is the Chinese are committed to keeping pace with demand, and not just to support the airlines. The country’s five-year plan for civil aviation development makes specific commitments to expanding general aviation. A sizeable Chinese delegation visited U.S. aviation agencies last September, in part to learn how to manage such rapid growth. That’s a big step forward considering private aircraft ownership was forbidden in China until 2003.

“The Chinese have an interest in building the [business aviation] infrastructure and in getting it right,“ says Roger Whyte, a resident Asia business aviation expert and special counsel to NBAA. That includes lifting flight restrictions and expanding the number of accessible airports and full-service fixed base operators.

The business jet fleet in China is modest (about 200 aircraft), but is growing rapidly. Whyte estimates China will need 500 to 1,000 new pilots to match that anticipated fleet growth in the country’s business jet sector. “There’s just no clear picture where they’ll come from,“ he says.

The Chinese are actively recruiting university graduates to become pilots, but that push is to fill airline jobs.

“I think the solution to the shortage of business jet pilots has to be examined in conjunction with the CAAC,“ says Whyte. “They have good aviation schools in China. If they had a curriculum that would prepare pilots for business aviation specifically, that would help a great deal.“

Meanwhile, China continues to invest in general aviation through acquisitions such as Cirrus Aircraft’s July merger with China Aviation Industry General Aircraft (CAIGA) after the U.S. firm sold trainers to the Civil Aviation Flight University of China. CAIGA also purchased Epic Aviation and Continental Engines, Whyte notes. Diamond Aircraft is producing aircraft in China, and Shenyang Aircraft Corporation is building the 162 Skycatcher there for Cessna. AVIC has announced its desire to design and build business jets. All of these aircraft will be able to operate in China’s newly opened lower-level airspace.

For the moment, however, Whyte says, “There is no formal training program or career path that exists in China to develop pilots for business aviation.“ But there is plenty of opportunity.

“China will need pilots, mechanics and other aviation personnel to support this fast-growing market,“ says Melissa Rudinger, senior vice president of government affairs for the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA). She was in Beijing last September to participate in the AOPA China conference. “I believe this creates great business opportunities for foreign pilots and flight training professionals.“

Note from Nick Knightly:

If you’d like to learn how to take advantage of this exciting trend in Asia and get your Dream Pilot Job, click here now!

by  CHAD TRAUTVETTER

“The business aviation market is just starting to recover,” Teal Group vice president for aerospace analysis Richard Aboulafia said this morning during an aerospace and defense outlook teleconference hosted by Desjardins Capital Markets. “Companies are making record profits and are literally stuffing about 7 percent of this cash under their mattresses,” meaning many have available capital that could be readily deployed to purchase business jets. He is also encouraged by the declining inventories of pre-owned business aircraft.

Aboulafia is forecasting a 12-percent compound annual growth rate for business aircraft through 2017. Though he expects that the top and bottom market segments will expand at this same rate, Aboulafia said the bottom half will still be depressed in historic terms and thus “there will be too many players in this segment.”

Note from Nick Knightly:

If you’d like to take advantage of this news and get your Dream Pilot Job, click here now!

Business aircraft flying activity in the U.S. returned to positive territory last month, with traffic rising 6.1 percent versus the year-ago period, according to TraqPak data released today by aviation services company Argus. As it has for much of the past year, Part 91 flying was solely responsible for the overall gain last month, with activity in this segment climbing a healthy 11.7 percent year over year.

Flying activity at charter and fractional providers slipped 0.8 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively, from February 2011. While it was only a marginal loss, it still marks the 13th consecutive month of slowing activity at Part 135 charter companies, though it should be noted that charter turboprop flying did rise by 5.7 percent.

Aircraft category results were up almost across the board, with turboprops leading the pack with a 9.3-percent gain. Light jet activity rose 6.6 percent and midsize flying climbed 5 percent. Large-cabin flying was only slightly down, at -0.3 percent.

By individual market segment, Part 91 turboprops and light and midsize jets saw double-digit gains of 12.5 percent, 13.5 percent and 15.4 percent, respectively. Part 135 midsize flying recorded the largest drop at -5.4 percent. Argus TraqPak data “is serial-number-specific aircraft arrival and departure information on all IFR flights in the U.S.”

by  CHAD TRAUTVETTER, AINonline

Note from Nick Knightly:

If you’d like to learn how to take advantage of this news and get your Dream Pilot Job, click here.

The business aviation market is showing early signs that the momentum at the end of last year is carrying into 2012 with key indicators improving in January, according to initial analyst reports. Used aircraft sales continued to strengthen, and prices jumped dramatically in January for the first time in months, according to Jetnet’s latest report.

Business aircraft flights, meanwhile, reached their highest levels of activity in nearly a year, according to FAA and Morgan Stanley data.

This dovetails with anecdotes from some of the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) reporting increases in interest and activity in January, which traditionally is a slower month for aircraft sales.

The percentage of the fleet for sale is down across all categories and fell below 10% for turboprops in particular, “clearly moving it into a seller’s market,” Jetnet says. Business jets for sale were down almost a full percentage point to 13.7% in January, and turboprops were down by more than a percentage point to 9.3%. Both turbine and piston helicopters for sale also declined to 6.4% and 6%, respectively.

Average asking prices, meanwhile, were up dramatically in all categories except piston helicopters in January. Prices jumped 51.6% for turboprops and 58% for turbine helicopters, Jetnet says. They also improved for business jets, while piston helicopter prices slid modestly.

The overall increase in prices is welcome news for the OEMs, some of which had to offer deep discounts to move unsold inventory. It’s not the first increase in prices since the downturn. There were temporary upticks early last year, and analysts caution that one month does not make a trend.

But industry expert Brian Foley, owner of consultancy Brian Foley Associations, notes that prices in January 2011 “will have been near the low-water mark for turboprop pricing and that 2012 could potentially see pricing approaching levels not seen in three years.”

A number of factors could play into the price increases, particularly for the turboprop changes–including the mix of turboprops sold. Fuel prices might be sparking some interest, but Foley cautions that fuel prices can be a double-edged sword for turboprops. “On one hand, since turboprops are more fuel-efficient than jets, it helps to drive their value proposition,” he says. “However, within the category, buyers at the low end of the turboprop product spectrum are more sensitive to overall operating costs than buyers at the high end, which could end up bifurcating the market much as we’ve seen with business jets.”

Beyond used aircraft inventory, other market indicators showed positive signs in January. Business aircraft flights improved 1.27% in January, reaching the highest level since June, analyst Morgan Stanley says. Traffic was up for Gulfstream and Bombardier models, although down 0.4% for Cessna aircraft.

The OEM chiefs also have been encouraged by the beginning of 2012. Scott Donnelly, chairman and CEO of Cessna Aircraft parent Textron, says sales have gotten off to a better start this year than they have in past years.

By Kerry Lynch, Aviation Week

Note by Nick Knightly:

If you’d like to learn how to take advantage of this news and get your Dream Pilot Job, click here.

As you know I try very hard to help my fellow pilots to get a job that they most desire.

I give them tons of free information that moves them closer to their goals.

I’m often told that I’m giving the pilot career training that the flight schools don’t teach, and although that wasn’t my original intention, I’m happy to take on that role.

As much as I enjoy sharing this information with my fellow pilots, I also like to get compensated for my efforts, at least for the one and only product on my website that is actually for sale, and especially when it is the very thing that will solve a pilot’s employment problem by showing them how to get a pilot job that pays them a generous salary.

I recently got an email from one of my subscribers who wanted more information, which I’m always happy to provide. I gave him as much information as I could in emails and he was excited …for awhile. So was I! I was so sure that the Dream Pilot Jobs program would help him the get the job he wanted, that I offered to personally mentor him until he got it.

But when I told him that the program was FOR SALE…

He got angry. The next day he tried to hack my blog by writing this comment:

“THIS IS A SCAM!!!!!!!!”

“HE TOOK MY MONEY AND WONT GIVE ME A REFUND.”

I couldn’t believe it!

Of course, HAD he actually bought the course from me, I would have been obligated by law to give him a refund if for any reason it wasn’t what he wanted, just like I state in my guarantee.

But the fact that he was so angry that he resorted to slander got me thinking…

Am I being unreasonable? I’d like to know what you think.

You can read our conversation below. I changed his name out of respect, but otherwise this is a straight copy and paste from the emails we exchanged:

>>>>>>> From: “Bob” <bob@email.com>
>>>>>>> Sent: Friday, March 19, 10:42 AM
>>>>>>> To: “Nick – Dream Pilot Job” <nick@dreampilotjobs.com>
>>>>>>> Subject: Re: My flight times
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Hi Nick,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Since I was furloughed from a major 121 carrier last year, I was
>>>>>>> thinking of going corporate.  I don’t know if I’ll go back to my
>>>>>>> airline or not. If something better comes up before I get
>>>>>>> recalled, I’d be willing to give up the seniority number.  But
>>>>>>> what I want is something where I could be home based but still be
>>>>>>> able to travel the world in modern aircraft.  But from what I
>>>>>>> hear, that a pretty hard gig to get into.  Not only if you don’t
>>>>>>> personally know anybody at a particular flight department, but
>>>>>>> also if you don’t have a type rating and time in type of the
>>>>>>> particular aircraft that they operate.  And we all know how much
>>>>>>> it costs go to to Flightsafety/simuflite and pay for those
>>>>>>> ratings yourself.  Not going to happen, at least for me because I
>>>>>>> don’t have that kind of cash.  I’m in between jobs right now but
>>>>>>> I’m staying current on my own.   So, it looks like you’re flying
>>>>>>> corporate as well. How’s that working out?  So what else do you
>>>>>>> have on your site that can help me get the job I want in this
>>>>>>> economy?  Any help can’t hurt the way I figure it.  Talk to you
>>>>>>> soon.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> -Bob
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>———————————————————————————
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Nick – Dream Pilot Jobs wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Hi Bob, hope you had a good weekend. Yes, I do fly corporate/
>>>>>> private and I like it a lot for several reasons, most of which you
>>>>>> mentioned! The pay is much better if you find the right operator
>>>>>> and to be honest, it’s not that hard to do if you make the right moves.
>>>>>> I really built the whole program around this process, and by the way,
>>>>>> you don’t need to “know someone.” (I didn’t know any of my employers
>>>>>> before I got the job.)
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I do know what you mean about the cost of sim training, and I usually
>>>>>> only advocate that someone should be willing to pay for their first type
>>>>>> if absolutely necessary and only because they want to make a career
>>>>>> out of flying that airplane (Not to get a job with someone) AND
>>>>>> only if a great paying job is assured AND only if a significant
>>>>>> discount is arranged with Simuflite. My program addresses exactly
>>>>>> how to put all that in place.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> But you may be able to use the experience you already have.
>>>>>> Have you contacted the B737-BBJ owners and operators? If handled
>>>>>> correctly, you could get a job I’d be envious about!
>>>>>>
>>>>>> My program is designed for pilots like yourself and I will be
>>>>>> happy to help.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Thanks, and have a good one.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Your Friend,
>>>>>> Nick Knightly
>>>>>>
>>>>>> —————————————————————————-
>>>>>
>>>>> From: “Bob” <bob@email.com>
>>>>> Sent: Monday, March 22, 1:34 PM
>>>>> To: “Nick – Dream Pilot Job” <nick@dreampilotjobs.com>
>>>>> Subject: Re: My flight times
>>>>>
>>>>> Hi Nick,
>>>>>
>>>>> I’ve been brainstorming about how to get in touch with all the BBJ
>>>>> operators, but first, I have to find out who they are.  I’m sure
>>>>> there’s no “master” list anywhere (well maybe if I go to Boeing
>>>>> itself and ask who’s purchased a BBJ in the last 5 years, but I
>>>>> don’t think they’ll give up that information) so I have to develop
>>>>> a list of my own and go from there.  Since you’re in corporate
>>>>> already and you may know something I don’t, is there a faster way I
>>>>> can get this information for myself without spending a week on
>>>>> google?  I’ll watch for your website update.  Thanks.
>>>>>
>>>>> -Bob
>>>>>
>>>>>———————————————————————————

>>>> Nick – Dream Pilot Jobs wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Hi Bob,
>>>>
>>>> You are correct, Boeing would certainly NOT give up that
>>>> information.
>>>>
>>>> To test this, I recently called Gulfstream and tried to find out who
>>>> placed orders for the new G-650 (because I would LOVE to be
>>>> one of the first to fly one.)
>>>>
>>>> Well, let’s just say it was fun listening to them laugh at me…
>>>>
>>>> However, you’re on the right track. You CAN target the owners
>>>> of the airplanes you’re already type rated to fly, and if handled
>>>> correctly, you will be the next in line when a position opens (if
>>>> one isn’t already available now).
>>>>
>>>> I CAN show you exactly how to find them, everywhere in the world.
>>>>
>>>> It’s actually pretty cool that you’re going to be doing this because I
>>>> built my program precisely for pilots like you and it has been proven
>>>> to produce results.
>>>>
>>>> In fact, you’re lucky because you’re already at the last stage, which is
>>>> using your experience to leverage yourself into your Dream Job.
>>>>
>>>> Specifically, you’ll be using the video presentations in Chapter 3 that
>>>> will show you how to find the owners of those BBJs and then how to
>>>> determine which ones to contact.
>>>>
>>>> It’s clearly not something I could explain in an email, so I’d like to
>>>> invite you to get the program right now so you can get started.
>>>>
>>>> Just click here to get it.
>>>>
>>>> I’ve put over a year of work into this and I know it could work
>>>> for you.
>>>>
>>>> Starting tomorrow, I’ll be your personal consultant with this task
>>>> and we’ll make sure you have the success you’re looking for. This
>>>> is a service I provide to my clients.
>>>>
>>>> And just so you know, I’m so sure this is what you’re looking for,
>>>> that I’ll give you 100% of your money back if it doesn’t produce
>>>> the results you want.
>>>>
>>>> Talk to you soon,
>>>>
>>>> Your Friend,
>>>> Nick Knightly
>>>
>>> ——————————————————————————-
>>>
>>> From: “Bob” <Bob@email.com>
>>> Sent: Wednesday, March 24, 11:13 AM
>>> To: “Nick – Dream Pilot Job” <nick@dreampilotjobs.com>
>>> Subject: Re: My flight times
>>>
>>> What happened to “it’s free of charge?”  That’s not what you lead me
>>> on to believe but I’m willing to make a deal with you.
>>>
>>> Give me access to your system and if I get the job that you boast
>>> that I can get, then I’ll pay you triple the cost and I’ll pass the
>>> word on to all my furloughed colleagues.   Do we have a deal?
>>>
>>>———————————————————————————-
>>
>> Nick – Dream Pilot Jobs wrote:
>>
>> Hi Bob,
>>
>> I completely understand where you coming from. Please let me explain:
>>
>> Everything I have offered you so far HAS been free of charge. The resume
>> and the cover videos alone took me several months of research,
>> development, and consultations with chief pilots and recruiters from
>> all sectors of the industry, and I did it all on my “off time” in between
>> trips, when I could have been spending time with my lovely wife (who
>> supports me nevertheless.)
>>
>> Yet I offered it for free because I have found that, while many aviation
>> website sell “resume/interview kits” for hundreds of dollars, most pilots
>> I meet are shooting themselves in the foot by having CVs that are flawed.
>>
>> The feedback I receive shows me that by giving away just this information
>> alone, I am achieving my goal of helping my fellow pilots.
>>
>> However, I understand if you didn’t need those videos.
>>
>> The majority of my efforts however, have gone into the program I am
>> offering, and I can’t even begin to explain the amount of my personal
>> time and energy I have put into creating the only start-to-finish pilot
>> career training course available (the course that I think SHOULD be
>> taught in flight schools.)
>>
>> The information I have in the program is beyond what I could explain in an
>> email or with a single video presentation (the manual alone is 207 pages)
>> and while it IS no doubt WORTH more than triple the cost, $97 is
>> already a fantastic deal, especially considering the fact that I am offering
>> my personal consultation and a money-back guarantee if it doesn’t
>> live up to your expectations.
>>
>> We have simply reached the point when I must refer you to the
>> content I created as the solution for your problem.
>>
>> It is the ONLY thing for sale on my site, and my clients would agree
>> that the service I am providing is more than generous, and you and I
>> both know how $97 compares with the many tens of thousands of dollars
>> you could spend in aviation furthering your career. I do intend to pay
>> for the cost of running my website and justify the incredible effort I
>> have put into it, as I’m sure you would do the same.
>>
>> If you haven’t already, at least watch this special presentation here
>>  so you know where I’m coming from and what I am offering before you
>> make your decision.
>>
>> I know this isn’t what you wanted to hear, and I completely understand
>> if you don’t want to invest in the program.  Nevertheless, if you would
>> like to stay on as my subscriber, I will continue to produce more useful
>> and valuable content for you each week, I will send it to your email and
>> post it on my blog, and all of it will be free of charge.
>>
>> Your Friend,
>> Nick Knightly
>>
>>———————————————————————————–
>
> From: “Bob” <bob@email.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, March 24, 8:42 PM
> To: “Nick – Dream Pilot Job” <nick@dreampilotjobs.com>
> Subject: Good luck
>
> Good luck selling your SCAM…
>
>—————————————————————–

Wow.

I understand that many people would like to get everything for free.

Should I give my program away for free?

Should John and Martha King give away their excellent pilot training videos for free?

Should Jeppesen give away their chart subscriptions for free?

Should flight schools give free instruction in their airplanes?

How about free type ratings at Flight Safety?

(Does Flight Safety offer a 100% money back guarantee if you don’t LIKE your type rating?)

Answer this:

Would you go to work and do the best job you could if your boss called you a SCAMMER for requesting your paycheck?

Why wouldn’t you?

Because you’re putting your effort, your time, and your energy into something and feel that it’s only fair that you’re being compensated appropriately.

So why did “Bob” feel that I should give him the Dream Pilot Jobs Career Training Program for free?

I put more than triple the amount of flight hours I logged over the past two years into creating the best –and ONLY – training course on pilot employment available today. I tested it over the course of a year and a half in order to perfect a system that anyone can follow and get exactly the job they deserve. I feel the information that I share in the course is priceless considering the possibilities for a LIFETIME of satisfaction resulting from a successful career. In other words, I believe it’s worth every penny and more.

And on top of it all, I offer a 60-day money back guarantee if it doesn’t work. (Perhaps the only money you will EVER spend in aviation where you will receive an offer like that.)

I thought that was a really good deal.

If someone enrolls in a flight school, they end up paying TENS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS pursuing their dreams before they can legally work as a pilot for a living and they are taught only a fraction of how to actually do so.

I show my clients the steps to a great pilot career that not many people know about. Simply because it took me years of mistakes and financial struggle until I figured out a system that works and I want to save you the trouble of doing the same.

It costs less than a hundred bucks. Unreasonable?

I’d love to know what you think.

Do you feel like Bob?

Do you think that investing $97 in a pilot career training course that will show you how to design a pilot career and lifestyle that you love, for the rest of your life – is too expensive?

Don’t be like Bob.

Get the Dream Pilot Jobs Program. See what it can do for you. You won’t be disappointed.

You have nothing to lose by at least giving it a try.

Thanks for reading.

Nick Knightly

We all have a story about today.

Exactly ten years ago, I was an enthusiastic albeit inexperienced Flight Instructor. Just like most other days, I had scheduled a morning lesson with a student earning his Private Pilot’s license.

Coincidentally, I happened to be working at one of the same Florida airports that the terrorists had come looking for flight instruction only a few months previous.

My student and I we were ready to taxi, engine running, checklist completed, working up a good sweat.

He had big plans for a few hours of steep turns, stalls, and sweet landings… and I had hopes of keeping us mostly right side up, for most of the time.

But then our dispatch attendant came running out onto the ramp and gave me that familiar “Cut the engine!” signal.

And we went inside and found out what had happened…

————————————————————-

The funny thing about airplanes is: When treated properly, they really try hard to do what the humans at the controls want them to do.

They’ll even do what they’re told when the humans are disillusioned and fanatical.

And it’s a terrible shame when that happens.

Because, as you and I both know, airplanes (and all aircraft) are built for serving their purpose for us humans in the most positive, altruistic, and beneficial way.

Every day, they bring family and friends together across great distances.

They connect business, cultures, and continents and help us learn to work together.

They make remote places accessible, revealing new and amazing discoveries.

They study the weather and give us advance warning of impending danger.

They bring food and supplies to those most in need.

They fertilize the farmland so we can buy robust food, free from disease.

If your neighborhood is on fire, an aircraft full of water will save your home!

And if you’re in grave danger, an aircraft will come to your rescue and deliver you to a place where you can be healed.

They even protect us from the disillusioned and fanatical.

And every day, someone rolls down a runway, pulls back on the yoke, leaves the ground, and rising above the treetops, taking in the open sky for the first time… discovers his life’s purpose.

That should make you proud to be a pilot. We are the humans at the controls.

And with that comes great responsibility.

Let’s remember to always safely guide our aircraft to their destination – with their highest purpose in mind.

You have a valuable skill, use it to help all mankind.

Thanks for reading.

Your Friend,
Nick Knightly

P.S. I’d love to hear your comments. Please post them below.

By: Chad Trautvetter, AINonline.com

Demand for new-production business jets “showed signs of perking up” in the second quarter, JPMorgan North American Equity Research notes in its latest monthly business jet market update. However, it is perturbed about macroeconomic concerns. “Updates from the business jet OEMs were generally encouraging, though mixed signals persist,” said JPMorgan aerospace analyst Joseph Nadol III. The firm notes that the gap between the “healthier high end and the still sluggish lower end remained in place, with the strongest numbers coming from Gulfstream.” JPMorgan believes the sustainability of the business jet market recovery will depend in large part on macro developments, which have shown much volatility over the past few weeks. “If another recession begins, the good news for bizjets is that a recovery never took hold in earnest, so the main risk is that it is simply pushed out further,” said JPMorgan. Since second-quarter deliveries reported by GAMA were 57 percent off the peak in the second quarter of 2008, “the risk of another downturn of similar magnitude looks minimal,” it concluded. “We do believe that bizjets are somewhat insulated from further [production] rate cuts.”

Note from Nick Knightly:
To learn how to take advantage of this news and get your Dream Pilot Job NOW, Click Here!

BY MOLLY MCMILLIN, The Wichita Eagle

Last week, the stock market whipsawed as it responded to the political debate about the nation’s debt and the country’s credit downgrade. The Dow Jones industrial average had four 400-point swings in a row for the first time in its 115-year history.

That volatility may result in a short period of slower sales for some business jet manufacturers, said Brian Foley, aviation consultant with Brian Foley Associates.

But it also could lead to stronger demand down the road, he said.

“That means when the true recovery does take hold, it will have much more momentum,” Foley said. “There’s just so much pent-up demand out there from aircraft sales to maintenance services that people have been putting off.”

Manufacturers and their order books are stronger today than they were three years ago when the market plunged during the recession and buyers canceled droves of orders.

Their order books are of a higher caliber than they were before the downturn, Foley said.

“Gone are the speculators and those that qualified for aircraft financing simply because they were breathing,” Foley said.

Orders on the books are from buyers who have the balance sheets to support them, who have been heavily scrutinized by lenders and have made meaningful down payments on aircraft, Foley said.

“The weak players canceled their orders long ago,” he said.

Aircraft manufacturers have also changed in the past three years, Foley said. They’ve been driving out costs, reducing waste and adding productivity and efficiencies.

“They’re basically cocked and loaded so when the market does recover, those airplanes are going to be built for a whole lot less,” Foley said. “They’re going to be stronger companies than they were in the past.”

Teal Group analyst Richard Aboulafia said he still predicts a conservative recovery in the business jet market next year.

Despite the violent market swings, “corporate profits haven’t been impacted,” Aboulafia said.

And nothing has disrupted two key indicators of business jet demand — availability of the business jet fleet that’s up for sale and fleet utilization, he said.

Wayne Plucker, senior industry analyst with Frost & Sullivan’s Aerospace and Defense Group, called the market reaction an annoyance rather than a long-term problem — as long as it doesn’t become a tipping point for the economy.

“The truth is that all the folks who would buy business jets were starting to return to decent profitability,” Plucker said. “Now their profitability hasn’t changed… but they’re probably going to hold their shekels closer to their vest just because they don’t know what’s going to happen.”

That will likely turn around in six to 12 months, he said.

Still, Washington isn’t doing business aviation any favors with the lack of funding for the Federal Aviation Administration and talk of taxing corporations more on their business jets, he said.

“There’s just so many loose balls rolling around the deck,” Plucker said. “At this point, we’re trying to find out which ones are going to find pockets and which ones aren’t.”

Wichita’s business jet manufacturers have been watching the recent developments closely.

It’s challenging, Hawker Beechcraft executive vice president Shawn Vick said of Wall Street’s turbulence. But experienced businesspeople recognize it for what it is.

“This latest noise is manufactured out of political issues, not relevant economic business issues,” Vick said. “This noise in the marketplace will fade.”

In the meantime, customers are taking a step back to determine whether the recent developments are relevant.

Those who say they’re not are buying and ordering airplanes, Vick said. Those who are uncertain are taking longer to make a decision.

“Provided there’s no significant sovereign default… that throws the banking industry into disarray, we’ll get into what will be a busier time as we go into the third and the fourth quarter,” Vick said.

“You get through that summer quiet period, and people start planning for the following year, making decisions (and) executing on their business plans.”

In the meantime, the stock market fluctuations have not changed Hawker Beechcraft’s plan to transform itself and improve costs and efficiencies, Vick said.

“We’re executing against the plan and are making progress,” Vick said

Note from Nick Knightly:
To learn how to take advantage of this news and get your Dream Pilot Job NOW, Click Here!